Cherokee’s population has cracked 200,000, according to new data, propelling it to become the 18th fastest-growing county in the nation.

The population boomed to 204,363 by last July from 194,082 in July of 2006 - a change of 10,281 people and a 5.3-percent increase, the U.S. Census Bureau estimated in a new report released Thursday. The addition of an average of 28 new people a day helped boost the county to No. 18 on the bureau’s list of the 100 fastest-growing counties in the U.S. with populations greater than 10,000.

Between April of 2000 and last July, Cherokee added 62,460 residents for a growth rate of 44 percent, ranking it No. 21 on the national list for that period, up from No. 24 in last year’s report. For the seven-year period, Cherokee also is the sixth-highest ranked Georgia county, following Forsyth, Paulding, Henry, Newton and Barrow. Forsyth again ranks at No. 8 with 61.5 percent growth, totaling 60,507 new residents.

Between July 2006 and last July, Cherokee saw more births, with 3,575 as compared to 3,047 the previous year, and deaths, with 1,048 as compared to 963. Fewer people relocated to Cherokee from other counties and states, with 7,363 moving in between July 2006 and last July, as compared to 8,490 the previous year, as well as from other countries, with 463 as compared to 521.

Doug Bachtel, an expert demographer and University of Georgia professor, thinks jobs, housing and schools will keep people coming to Cherokee, and likely have during the months since last July, but other factors may dry up the stream. "We’ve had phenomenal growth, but we’re still not trying to slow it down yet, but the drought may be doing that," he said, noting that if crime rises or schools fail, interest also would lag. "Things like that could put the kabash on growth, as most migrants are young and in their child-rearing years."

Excerpted from the Cherokee Tribune, March 21, 2008

Home sales in Cherokee County rose increased in February, compared to the previous month, but were still way below last year’s level:

• Sales in February were 162, compared to 131 in January 319 in February 2007.
• Sales for the first two months of this year were 293 compared to 532 in the first two months of 2007.
• The average price of homes sold in the first two months of 2008 was $238,344, a 2.6% drop from the comparable period last year.

So, sales are heading in the right direction, although they have a long way to go to catch up to the pace of the last few years and especially to absorb the current inventory of 3,160 homes on the market in Cherokee County.  1568 listings were added to the Cherokee County inventory during January and February, which was slightly below from 1624 listings added during the same period last year.

If you are interested in knowing the sales activity in your neighborhood, go to my web site, www.YourCherokeeCountyHome.com and click on “Your Home’s Value.”

The United States District Court for the Eastern District of California has permanently set aside U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development’s (HUD) rule to ban private downpayment assistance as proposed in the “Standards for Mortgagor’s Investment in Mortgaged Property” regulation published October 1, 2007.

This means that non-profit organizations such as Nehemiah Corporation can continue to provide downpayment assistance is a life line to the families who lack the financial resources to buy homes. While the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) will lend 97% of the market value, needy families have been and will continue to able to obtain assistance to make the 3% downpayment.

Nehemiah Corporation is the largest privately funded downpayment assistance programs in the U.S.

Please contact me by e-mail or phone if you or someone you know is looking for zero downpayment financing to buy a home in Cherokee County.

Many people get excited at the idea of investing in real estate. However, it would be foolish to think that you couldn’t make a bad investment when it comes to buying property. That would be a myth. Therefore, you need to learn how to recognize a good investment.

You will learn to recognize a good investment when you start researching the areas where you want to buy. Areas with many empty lots, rundown buildings, and other signs of recession should be avoided. Areas where there is new construction and signs of growth should be carefully considered.

To recognize a good investment you must first know your market. This is done by researching the sales in the area. You may find a property for sale with an asking price of $100,000. And on the surface it may seem like a good investment. But if similar properties in the area are selling for $90,000 that likely means the property in question is not a good investment. If you find similar properties selling for $130,000 then the property may still not be so good. You need to consider how long it took the other properties to sell. When the market is moving slowly, meaning properties are taking six months to a year to sell then the properties in the area would not be worth the effort. You should find another area.

Once you find a potential investment property, the real investigating begins. If you are buying new construction (or pre-construction), then you can easily compare the purchase price to the recently sold “comps” in the area, as well as a recent appraisal from the builder.

If you are buying “used”, you will want to determine if there have been any upgrades or major structural changes to the property. . . .

Have a contractor inspect the property to determine if there are any major repairs which may need to be done. You do not want to buy something that will end up being a “money pit”.

You will also want to know if there are any plans to change the zoning in the area. This can make a big difference on whether the property is a good investment. If there is growth in the area, you may find the zoning is due to be changed from multi-family to commercial. This could make the property go up in value. The opposite is true with other zoning changes.

The KEY to recognizing a good real estate investment is to make sure the property is being sold under market value, in an area experiencing growing, and making sure the zoning is in accordance with what you are buying.

To further ensure you have a good investment, make sure the property will provide you with a positive cash-flow if your strategy is to hold the property. Conversely, if your exit strategy is to “flip” the property then make sure you have enough equity to leave you with an annualized return of 15% or more after deducting all your expenses (repairs, holding costs, and any selling fees).

As you do more deals, you will learn to better recognize a good investment from a bad one. A good one will make you money. A bad one can cost you a fortune.

Source: Norada Real Estate Investments

Jules’ note:  If you are thinking about investing in Cherokee County,  I will be happy to assist you in identifying potential investment properties as well as assisting you in the due diligence and negotiation. Please call me at 770.546.5364.

Charts and graphs are useful for observing trends. This article is the first in an on-going series intended to keep subscribers abreast of trends in the Cherokee County residential real estate market.  This article provides an overview of the single family residence sales activity.

The first two charts below tell the story of the Cherokee County home selling market for the last six years (which is as far back as they are tracked by the source of these figures, the First Multiple Listing Service). As you can see, sales leveled off in 2005 and started sliding in 2007, while the number of "new" listings continues to increase.

Unfortunately, the number of "new" listings may be somewhat misleading, because the statistic not only includes homes going on the market, but it also includes previous listings that have expired and are going back onto the market as a "new" listing. Similarly, many listings are withdrawn and subsequently relisted. FMLS does not supply annualized data on expired and withdrawn listings. 

The gap between active and sold listings is measured by the "Market Absorption Rate," which is simply the number of homes sold divided by the number of listings added to the FMLS during that period, expressed as a percentage. The following chart shows the market absorption rate for the last six years.  The significance of this statistic is the indication it provides of the market inventory.  An annual absorption rate of 50% means that the homes on the market at the end of a year would on the average take 6 months to sell, if there were no more listings during that period , which of course doesn’t happen.  So the value of the "Market Absorption Rate" is in in its indication of a trend, and at the beginning of 2008, the trend is not encouraging for sellers.

It may be helpful to zoom in on activity activity for last year for a closer picture of how the Cherokee County market is trending.  The following charts indicate the selling and new listing activity from January 2007 to January 2008.

These charts suggest that a lot of homes came off the market as listings expired during last few months of last year.  February will be more of a bellwether, since last year the Market Absorption Rate jumped in February.

Please be aware that the market activity can be broken down sectionally with Cherokee County as well as by neighborhood.  If you are planning to sell your home this year, then I will be glad to track the market activity for your neighborhood as well as for homes in the area comparable to yours. Please visit my website, www.YourCherokeeCountyHome.com, and click on "Your Home’s Value" for a customized report.

If you are thinking of buying a home in Cherokee County be the first to know when homes that match your criteria come on the market by registering for the "Dream Home Finder" service on my website, www.YourCherokeeCountyHome.com.

The next article in the series will provide similar information on condos. . Subscribe to this blog to keep up-to-date on Cherokee County Real Estate. If you have any questions, feel free to post them on this site, or contact me by phone (770.546.LENI) or via e-mail.

jules@julesleni.com

The Federal Reserve surprised everyone yesterday with an emergency intersession rate cut of .75%, the deepest cut in the Fed Funds Rate since 1984. The Fed Governors are acting in direct response to recent reports that the country is on the brink of recession.

If you have credit cards, auto loans, HELOCs, or an Adjustable Rate Mortgage, the Fed’s decision to cut this key interest rate is great news. For long-term mortgage rates however, this could signal the beginning of the end for the lowest 30-year home loan rate borrowers have experienced since 2005.

First, we need to talk just a little about the CUT in Federal Reserve rates.  This may be just the shot in the arm that the economy needs, although there is a good chance that the FED will cut more next week (watch the news on January 30th).  Also, the quick agreement between the White House and Congress seems to have pleased Wall Street enough to stabilize the stock market, at least for a while. 

However, the ultimate effect of the rate and tax cutting is going to be perceived as INFLATIONARY, and that’s bad for long term rates, even though we are seeing long term rates go down right now.  In any case, NOW is the right time to lock in long term fixed rate financing, because once the inflation engine gets cranked up again, it will be hard to slow it down.

The bottom line is this: if you are thinking about buying property (either as your residence or investment), you may not want to wait for property prices in Cherokee County to drop further. Even if they do, you may eat up your savings in higher interest rates. If buying is not on your radar this year, you may want to look into refinancing your current mortgage now. None knows for sure when rates will start creeping up.

During the last few months I have spoken with over a hundred homeowners in Cherokee County who have tried unsuccessfully to sell their homes. Those whom I asked why their homes didn’t sell invariably blamed the “bad” market.

A case can be made that the market in Cherokee is “bad.” Sales of listed homes in 2007 were 22.3% below last year’s volume (3,431 vs. 4,416). There are currently 3,179 active house listings on the First Multiple Listing Service (FMLS). This statistic translates to a 11-month inventory. In other words, it would, statistically speaking, take 11 months to sell off the current listing inventory, if no more homes went on the market during this period. Well, you know that is not going to happen.

Putting these numbers in perspective, I would suggest that what we are seeing is a deflation not so much in sales as in expectations. Compared to what is going on in other parts of the country, Cherokee County is faring quite well, thanks largely to its continuing growth in population. While prices are not moving up (with a few exceptions), they are not dropping precipitately either.

So what lies ahead? The market will obviously remain competitive for sellers, and whether sales go up or down, those homeowners who adapt their expectations and strategies to the changing market will be successful in selling their homes.

If you are planning to sell your Cherokee County home this year, read my FREE report entitled “Strategies for Selling Your Home in 2008.”